Q0005
The largest sources of uncertainty are data centres and new industrial projects. Underneath them, continued economic growth, cooling, urbanisation and electrification will push demand upward, while energy efficiency, rooftop solar and tariff reform could materially change both consumption and the time at which demand reaches the grid.
Demand determines how much generation and network infrastructure Malaysia needs and whether renewable additions actually displace fossil fuels. Forecast errors are costly: overestimation can create stranded assets, while underestimation can produce congestion, higher emissions and reliability problems.
This is the most visible new source of large, concentrated demand, especially in Johor and the Klang Valley. As of September 2025, TNB described 29 data-centre projects representing 3.8 GW as “in system,” within a portfolio of 49 projects and approximately 7.1 GW maximum demand across completed, construction and contracted stages.
Important caveat: project maximum demand, connected capacity and actual electricity consumption are different measures. Actual loads may ramp slowly and may not peak simultaneously.
Semiconductors, electrical and electronic manufacturing, industrial parks, metals, chemicals, processing and other large projects will remain major drivers. Electricity demand can grow faster than GDP when the industrial mix shifts toward electricity-intensive sectors. Sarawak’s expansion is explicitly linked to SCORE industrial demand, including Samalaju.
Single Buyer identifies economic expansion, commercial activity, industrial development, population growth, urbanisation and rising household use as drivers of Peninsular demand through 2035. Its latest public outlook indicates notably faster growth than older planning assumptions, reinforcing the need to test infrastructure plans against multiple demand scenarios.
Air-conditioning demand will rise with incomes, commercial floor area, urban development and warmer temperatures. Cooling can increase both annual consumption and system peaks. Efficient equipment, better building envelopes, district cooling and thermal storage could substantially alter this trajectory.
Electric vehicles will add electricity demand while reducing petroleum use. Their system impact depends heavily on charging time and location. Managed overnight or solar-aligned charging can improve asset utilization; unmanaged coincident evening charging can add to peak demand and local distribution constraints.
Switching fossil-fuelled heat, equipment and buildings to electricity can increase electricity consumption while lowering total energy use and emissions. The pace will depend on equipment turnover, relative fuel prices and access to reliable low-carbon power.
Desalination, water pumping and treatment, rail transport, digital networks and potentially hydrogen production could create large new loads. Hydrogen electrolysis is especially uncertain because proposed projects may be export-led and highly sensitive to cost.
Efficiency standards, industrial optimization, efficient cooling, smart controls and building retrofits could moderate growth. Their value is greatest if they reduce peak demand or relieve constrained network locations.
These resources reduce measured grid demand during sunny hours but do not necessarily reduce evening peak demand. They can therefore make annual grid sales grow more slowly while increasing the steepness of the evening ramp. Without good registration and telemetry, they can also complicate forecasting.
Time-of-use pricing, automatic fuel-cost adjustments, subsidy targeting and future flexibility payments can change when and how consumers use electricity. The Peninsular tariff framework introduced revised peak and off-peak periods from July 2025, creating a stronger basis for demand shifting. Energy Commission tariff framework
Hotter conditions can raise cooling demand, while extreme weather can disrupt industrial activity or supply. Hydrological variability also affects Sarawak’s hydro system and can change how much thermal or stored energy is required.
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